GULF NATIONS LAUNCH "ARAB SCHENGEN" VISA: EXPANSION HOPES FACE GEOPOLITICAL REALITIES
By Gulf Affairs Correspondent
Updated: July 23, 2025
Ankara/Türkiye – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have agreed to implement a landmark "Unified Tourist Visa" starting 2024, creating a Schengen-style travel zone across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The initiative aims to rebrand the region as a single tourism destination, boosting visitor numbers and diversifying oil-dependent economies.
While the GCC framework is operational, speculation mounts about potential expansion to neighboring states. Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon have been floated as candidates, but analysts warn that complex political and security barriers could derail broader integration.
THE EXPANSION CANDIDATES: OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES
1. TURKEY: ECONOMIC UPSIDE, POLITICAL DEADLOCK
Potential:
Major recipient of Gulf tourists; single visa could enable "extended Gulf-Turkey travel circuits."
Strong economic ties with Qatar and Kuwait provide foundation.
Obstacles:
Persistent tensions with Saudi Arabia and UAE over regional conflicts (Libya, Muslim Brotherhood).
International Insight:Reuters: "Turkey’s entry requires significant diplomatic breakthroughs... current frictions make it improbable short-term."
Financial Times: "Ankara’s tourism revenue goals could incentivize rapprochement efforts."
Verdict: Economic logic is clear, but full normalization with Riyadh/Abu Dhabi remains a non-negotiable prerequisite.
2. JORDAN: THE FRONTRUNNER
Potential:
Stable relations with GCC; world-class attractions (Petra, Wadi Rum).
Natural add-on for Hajj pilgrims visiting Saudi holy sites.
Obstacles:
Economic fragility and proximity to regional instability (minor concerns).
International Insight:Al Jazeera: "Jordan is the most viable first-expansion candidate due to geography and existing ties."
The National (UAE): "Amman actively positions itself as a GCC tourism extension."
Verdict: The likely first addition once the GCC system stabilizes.
3. IRAQ: RELIGIOUS TOURISM GIANT VS. SECURITY NIGHTMARE
Potential:
Key Shia holy sites (Najaf, Karbala) attract millions annually; could create "religious tourism corridor."
Warming GCC ties: Saudi reopened Arar border, UAE pledged $5bn in investments.
Obstacles:
Critical security risks: Residual ISIS attacks, Iran-backed militias.
Political fragmentation, corruption, and inadequate tourism infrastructure.
Gulf fears over Iranian influence.
International Insight:
Reuters: "Iraq’s entry requires GCC confidence in Baghdad’s control over militias – unlikely soon."
Al-Monitor: "Gulf states see Iraq as an investment target, not yet a tourism partner."
The National (UAE): "Security/political stability are non-negotiable for visa integration."
Verdict: Mid-term prospect only if security improves dramatically and Iran’s shadow recedes.
4. SYRIA & LEBANON: NO HOPE IN SIGHT
Syria:
Sanctions, war devastation, and regime-GCC hostilities rule out integration.
BBC Monitoring: "Syria’s inclusion remains a distant dream."
Lebanon:
Economic collapse, Hezbollah’s dominance, and fractured GCC relations.
Arab News: "Lebanon’s potential is undeniable, but current chaos makes participation impossible."
Verdict: Effectively excluded for the foreseeable future.
THE GEOPOLITICAL BOTTOM LINE
The "Arab Schengen" marks a bold step toward Gulf economic integration. However, its long-term viability hinges on expansion beyond the GCC bloc:
Jordan offers a low-risk first step.
Turkey’s inclusion would signal seismic political shifts in Middle East alignments.
Iraq is the ultimate stress test for Gulf security tolerance.
Syria/Lebanon remain untouchable amid ongoing crises.
As one Riyadh-based diplomat summarized: "This system will live or die by security. The Gulf won’t compromise its safety for tourism revenue – no matter how lucrative."
Sources: GCC Secretariat, Reuters, FT, Al Jazeera, Arab News, BBC Monitoring, AP
